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Page Title: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Draft New Production Reactor Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
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DOE-STD-1024-92
difference between the seismicity parameters and upper magnitude
cutoffs.
The LLNL and EPRI attenuation models were compared to a set
of empirical Eastern United States data, for peak acceleration
and response spectral values. It was found that several
attenuation models fit the empirical set at frequencies less than
about 5 hertz. LLNL-AE5 fit the data particularly poorly at the low
frequencies.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory staff have undertaken a
probabilistic seismic hazard study for DOE at the Savannah River Site
(LLNL, 1992). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory staff, recognizing
the technical issues related to their earlier work, have attempted to
ensure that seismic hazard uncertainties are properly identified and
quantified. Draft results from Savannah River when compared to earlier
LLNL estimates explicitly show reductions in uncertainty estimates. Such
results are likely to have generic implications. The following three issues
appear to have the most significant influence on the draft revised
Savannah River results.
LLNL-AE5 has modified the attenuation relationship he had
previously selected in the LLNL Eastern United States study. For
Savannah River this change is judged to be relatively minor
because of the deep soil site conditions. For rock site conditions
the revised attenuation relationships is likely to be more
significant.
The characterization of attenuation uncertainty is assessed
inconsistently between experts. Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory has identified attenuation uncertainty as a key issue in
quantifying mean estimates of seismic hazard. Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory has performed initial sensitivity
studies using modified estimates (narrower range) of attenuation
uncertainty which results in reduction of mean seismic hazard of
about 30 to 50 percent.
The assessment of uncertainty in earthquake occurrence
parameters is treated inconsistently by different experts.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is developing diagnostic
tools to better determine if seismicity experts have properly
quantified earthquake occurrence uncertainty. Preliminary results
suggest that some LLNL seismicity experts may over-estimate the
range in earthquake occurrence parameters.
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