Commercial and Military Aviation.

DOE-STD-3014-96

reasonable to assume that GA aircraft can crash anywhere in the

CONUS.

Crash location probabilities for GA aircraft are based on the assumption

that future levels of GA aircraft activity and flight patterns will be similar

to the historical record. The model for estimating the distribution of GA

aircraft crash locations uses historical locations as the most likely but

assumes that future locations will deviate within some area about the

historical locations.

Several models of the variation of future crash locations based on

different hypotheses formed the basis for conducting a parametric study

of the product NPf(x,y). The models and the associated sensitivity

studies are discussed in Reference 1. The DOE site-specific values

provided in Table B-14 of Appendix B represent reasonably conservative

estimates obtained through a collective consideration of the sensitivity

study results.

Step 7. Refer to Appendix B, Table B-14, and obtain the appropriate site-specific or

generic value for NPf(x,y).

Step 8. Multiply the value of NPf(x,y) by the corresponding value for A determined in

Step 5. This is the estimated GA nonairport impact frequency.

Commercial and Military Aviation. Nonairport commercial and military

impact frequency calculations are based on the assumption that the

aircraft will fly point to point under the new FAA regulations rather than in

specific airways. The values of NPf(x,y) in Table B-15 are derived from

values developed for the ARTCC spanning the CONUS. The model

assumes that the traffic density within an ARTCC is uniform and, given a

crash in the ARTCC, the location of the crash is random.