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DOE-STD-3014-96
reasonable to assume that GA aircraft can crash anywhere in the
CONUS.
Crash location probabilities for GA aircraft are based on the assumption
that future levels of GA aircraft activity and flight patterns will be similar
to the historical record. The model for estimating the distribution of GA
aircraft crash locations uses historical locations as the most likely but
assumes that future locations will deviate within some area about the
historical locations.
Several models of the variation of future crash locations based on
different hypotheses formed the basis for conducting a parametric study
of the product NPf(x,y). The models and the associated sensitivity
studies are discussed in Reference 1. The DOE site-specific values
provided in Table B-14 of Appendix B represent reasonably conservative
estimates obtained through a collective consideration of the sensitivity
study results.
Step 7. Refer to Appendix B, Table B-14, and obtain the appropriate site-specific or
generic value for NPf(x,y).
Step 8. Multiply the value of NPf(x,y) by the corresponding value for A determined in
Step 5. This is the estimated GA nonairport impact frequency.
Commercial and Military Aviation. Nonairport commercial and military
b.
impact frequency calculations are based on the assumption that the
aircraft will fly point to point under the new FAA regulations rather than in
specific airways. The values of NPf(x,y) in Table B-15 are derived from
values developed for the ARTCC spanning the CONUS. The model
assumes that the traffic density within an ARTCC is uniform and, given a
crash in the ARTCC, the location of the crash is random.
43


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