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DOE-STD-3014-96
APPENDIX B
aircraft, the estimated crash location probability values for takeoff and landing crashes
are provided in Tables B-10 and B-12 when the pattern side is on the right side of the
runway, and in Tables B-11 and B-13 when the pattern side is on the left side of the
runway.
A comparison of the military aviation tables with those for commercial aviation
indicates significant differences between the areas where takeoff and landing crashes
are expected to occur. In commercial aviation, landing crashes end just about a mile
from the origin (center of the runway). In military aviation, landing crashes are more
widespread and extend up to 10 miles beyond the end of the runway. These
differences are driven by the assumptions made in the classification of crashes. For
military crashes, takeoffs are defined as the instant the aircraft lifts from the runway
until the time it transitions to climb to cruise altitude. If an aircraft crashes after takeoff
with no control capability, it is considered a takeoff crash. However, if an aircraft gets
into trouble during takeoff and the pilot is able to turn the aircraft for an attempted
emergency landing but crashes prior to a successful landing, it is considered a landing
crash. Therefore, an aircraft which has taken off from one end of the runway could
crash miles away from that end of the runway but still be classified as a landing crash.
This is why the takeoff crash location probability values for military aviation are
concentrated along the extended centerline of a runway, and those for the landing
crashes are spread out. In addition, because the downwind leg is parallel to, but some
distance away from, the runway, the landing probability values would not necessarily
monotonically decrease with increasing values of y, as is the case for commercial
aviation. Since the identification of crashes used to estimate the crash rates and
location probability values is consistent within each of the categories, military and
commercial, differences in the shape of the location distributions for military and
commercial aviation are realistic and do not affect the overall impact frequency
calculations.
The crash location probability values represent the conditional probability, given a
crash, of a crash into an area of one square mile. The analyst would use the facility's
B-9