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Crash Location Probabilities for Near-airport Operations - Continued - std30140125
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DOE Standard Accident Analysis For Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities
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Expected Number of Crashes Per Square Mile Per Year for Nonairport Operations. - Continued


DOE-STD-3014-96
APPENDIX B
coordinates (Cartesian distances) that fall within a bin identified in Tables B-2 through
B-13 to find the corresponding crash location probability value. For example, if a
facility's coordinate with respect to a runway is (x= -4.7, y=3.2), the analyst would take,
from the appropriate table, the crash location probability value that is given for the bin
at the intersection of (-5, -4) for the x value and (3, 4) for the y value. If the facility's
coordinate falls outside the boundaries of any of the tables or falls in a bin where no
value is given, the corresponding probability value is assumed to be zero.
B.3.4 Expected Number of Crashes Per Square Mile Per Year for Nonairport Operations.
Because of the limited number of historical in-flight crashes, particularly for commercial
and large military aircraft, frequency calculations for nonairport operations are based
on modeling the number of crashes per square mile per year, i.e., the product NPf(x,y),
and combining this with the facility effective area.
Table B-14 presents values of NPf(x,y), i.e., the expected number of crashes per
square mile per year, for general aviation applicable to selected DOE sites, as well as
maximum, minimum, and average values applicable to an arbitrary one-square-mile
area within the CONUS. These values have been derived from an analysis of the
locations of historical general aviation crashes. If site-specific information is required
and not presented here, further information is provided in Reference 2.
Table B-15 presents the maximum, minimum, average CONUS, and selected DOE site
values of NPf(x,y) (i.e., number of crashes per square mile per year) for commercial
and military aviation nonairport operations. These values have been derived from an
analysis of the historical locations of commercial and military aircraft combined with the
distribution of the activity levels in various ARTCCs. If site-specific information is
required and not presented here, further information is provided in Reference 2.
For military aviation, the values provided are based on `normal' military aircraft in-flight
crashes, which are not associated with special maneuvering and low level operations
at military operations areas (MOAs) and training ranges. Analysts at facilities in the
B-10


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