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Introduction - std30140042
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DOE Standard Accident Analysis For Aircraft Crash Into Hazardous Facilities
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Methodology for Impact Frequency Evaluation


DOE-STD-3014-96
Nijk
=
estimated annual number of site-specific aircraft operations (i.e.,
takeoffs, landings, and in-flights) for each applicable summation
parameter (no./y);
Pijk
=
aircraft crash rate (per takeoff or landing for near-airport phases and
per flight for the in-flight (nonairport) phase of operation for each
applicable summation parameter;
fijk(x,y) =
aircraft crash location conditional probability (per square mile) given
a crash evaluated at the facility location for each applicable
summation parameter;
Aij
=
the site-specific effective area for the facility of interest that includes
skid and fly-in effective areas (square miles) for each applicable
summation parameter, aircraft category or subcategory, and flight
phase for military aviation (see Appendix B);
i
=
(index for flight phases): i=1, 2, and 3 (takeoff, in-flight, and landing);
j
=
(index for aircraft category or subcategory): j=1, 2,..., 11;
k
=
(index for flight source): k=1, 2,..., K (there could be multiple
runways, and nonairport operations);
=
;
k
j
i
=
site-specific summation over flight phase, i; aircraft category or
ijk
subcategory, j; and flight source, k.
It should be noted that there is uncertainty associated with the frequency estimates
produced using the four-factor formula, caused by the need to model complex physical
processes using parameters that are based upon limited historical data.
Experience-based judgements have been made as needed to supplement historical data,
introducing additional uncertainties. This standard does not provide a quantitative
estimate of the uncertainties involved; rather, the mathematical formulations and
supporting parameter estimates have been made so as to provide a
reasonable point estimate of the frequency of aircraft crash impacts into specified
facilities.
5.2
Methodology for Impact Frequency Screening. Although the desirability of a simple
impact frequency screen based on the number of operations at nearby airfields was
39


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