Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment

DOE-STD-1020-2002

4.5

Probabilistic Flood Risk Assessment

In some cases the need may arise for DOE or the site manager to perform a quantitative

probabilistic flood risk assessment for a site. There may be a variety of reasons to require a risk

assessment. These include:

Demonstration that the performance goals are satisfied.

Evaluation of alternative design strategies to meet the performance goals.

Detailed consideration of conditions at a site that may be complex, such as

varying hydraulic loads (e.g., scour, high velocity flows), system

interactions, secondary failures, or a potential for extraordinary health

consequences.

A building is not reasonably incorporated in one of the four Performance

Categories.

The objective of a risk assessment is to evaluate the risk of damage to SSCs important for

maintaining safety and site operations. Risk calculations can be performed to evaluate the

likelihood of damage to on-site facilities and public-health consequence. Procedures to perform

probabilistic flood risk assessments are discussed in References 4-19 to 4-22.

4.6

References

4-1.

U.S. Department of Energy, Natural Phenomena Hazards Assessment Criteria, DOE-

STD-1023-95, Washington, D.C.

4-2.

4-2. American Nuclear Society, Determining Design Basis Flooding at Power Reactor

Sites, ANSI/ANS - 2.8-1981, La Grange Park, Illinois, 1992.

4-3.

American Society of Civil Engineers, Design for Ice Forces, Technical Council on

Cold Regions Engineering, New York, 1983.

4-4.

McCann, M.W. Jr., Boissonnade, A.C., Preliminary Flood Hazard Estimates for

Screening Department of Energy Sites: Albuquerque Operations Office, UCRL-21045,

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, 1988.

4-5.

Savy, J.B. and R.C. Murray, Natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project: Flood

Hazard Models for Department of Energy Sites, UCRL-53851, Lawrence Livermore

National Laboratory, Livermore, California, 1988.

4-15