Methodology For Evalating Aircraft Crash Impact and Realse Frequency

DOE-STD-3014-96

METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING AIRCRAFT CRASH IMPACT AND RELEASE

FREQUENCY

5.1

Introduction. This chapter establishes a set of guidelines and methods for calculating and

analyzing the impact frequency of aircraft crashes into a facility and the release frequency

for radioactive and/or hazardous materials. The approach to analyzing frequency is

divided into three parts:

Impact Frequency Evaluation: The fundamental analysis, based on estimating the

frequency of aircraft crashes into a facility. This provides basic frequencies for

subsequent screening and evaluation analyses.

Release Frequency Screening: An analysis based on including the structural

response evaluation in the impact frequency evaluation.

Release Frequency Evaluation: An analysis based on developing release

scenarios from the time of an aircraft crash until the time exposure occurs due to

the release of hazardous material.

The method used to estimate the frequency in each part is based on the same technical

principle; however, each part consists of varying degrees of complexity and conservatism.

After each part is completed, the results are compared with the guideline value given in

Chapter 4. If the result exceeds the guideline value, then additional analyses are

performed; otherwise, no further work is required beyond documenting the analysis.

The technical information provided in this chapter covers only the basic guidelines for

implementing the three parts, along with a description of the frequency estimation models

and the corresponding important input parameters for each model. Further technical

information required to perform the analysis is provided in Appendix B.

Detailed technical evaluations that support the development of each frequency model are

provided in the modeling and data technical support documents (References 1 and 2).

These support documents should be consulted if additional information on the specifics of