Guidelines Primarily Associated with Accuracy.

DOE-DP-STD-3023-98

measurements to benefit increase, and negative performance measurements to

benefit decrease (e.g., " umber of individual members of the public who have

expressed support for the activity"or " umber of individual members of the public who

have expressed opposition to the activity" . Alternatively, an absolute scale can be

)

developed that allows the difference between the baseline and each decision option to

be assessed (e.g., " efore-- there is 1 chance in 100 that a fatality will occur"and

" fter-- there is 1 chance in 1,000 that a fatality will occur, a benefit increase

probability of -0.009 lives lost [0.009 lives saved]"or " fter-- there is 1 chance in 10

that a fatality will occur, a benefit decrease probability of 0.09 lives lost [-0.09 lives

saved]" .

)

9.3 Guidelines Primarily Associated with Accuracy.

9.3.1

Guideline 3.1-- Establishment of Baseline. The benefits and costs of each decision

option should be measured against a baseline. The baseline should be the best

assessment of the way the world would look if the decision option is not implemented,

and it should correspond with the assumptions used to estimate decision option costs.

Discussion. To calculate value without the decision option, assumptions for

estimating performance without the decision option are required. Generally, the

baseline should represent the conditions that would exist in the absence of the

activities specified in the decision options. However, when the decision option is to

eliminate or modify ongoing activities, the baseline should reflect no change to

ongoing activities. When more than one baseline appears reasonable, or when the

baseline is very uncertain and the estimated benefits and costs of the proposed

decision options are likely to vary significantly with the baseline selected, benefits and

costs may be measured against multiple alternative baselines as a form of sensitivity

analysis.

9.3.2

Guideline 3.2-- Establishing Decision Options. The RBP system should be capable of

(1) assessing a broad range of decision options and (2) suggesting new decision

options.

Discussion. RBP systems can be employed in two distinct ways. First, an RBP

system can be used to assess a predefined set of decision options (specified perhaps

by the end user). In this usage, the set of decision options is determined

independently of the team of decision analysts conducting the prioritization project

through the conduct of engineering analyses, financial analyses, etc. Second, an RBP

system can be used in an iterative fashion to help identify new decision options. In

this usage, the decision analysts conducting the prioritization project work as a team

with other engineers and analysts to help postulate viable decision options. The RBP

system can be applied to a preliminary set of decision options; the results of this

preliminary prioritization can then be studied to identify the dominant factors that

discriminate among decision options (for example, the performance measures that

drive the results can be identified). Based on this information, new decision options

may be identified for further consideration.