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DOE-DP-STD-3023-98
measurements to benefit increase, and negative performance measurements to
benefit decrease (e.g., " umber of individual members of the public who have
n
expressed support for the activity"or " umber of individual members of the public who
n
have expressed opposition to the activity" . Alternatively, an absolute scale can be
)
developed that allows the difference between the baseline and each decision option to
be assessed (e.g., " efore-- there is 1 chance in 100 that a fatality will occur"and
b
" fter-- there is 1 chance in 1,000 that a fatality will occur, a benefit increase
a
probability of -0.009 lives lost [0.009 lives saved]"or " fter-- there is 1 chance in 10
a
that a fatality will occur, a benefit decrease probability of 0.09 lives lost [-0.09 lives
saved]" .
)
9.3 Guidelines Primarily Associated with Accuracy.
9.3.1
Guideline 3.1-- Establishment of Baseline. The benefits and costs of each decision
option should be measured against a baseline. The baseline should be the best
assessment of the way the world would look if the decision option is not implemented,
and it should correspond with the assumptions used to estimate decision option costs.
Discussion. To calculate value without the decision option, assumptions for
estimating performance without the decision option are required. Generally, the
baseline should represent the conditions that would exist in the absence of the
activities specified in the decision options. However, when the decision option is to
eliminate or modify ongoing activities, the baseline should reflect no change to
ongoing activities. When more than one baseline appears reasonable, or when the
baseline is very uncertain and the estimated benefits and costs of the proposed
decision options are likely to vary significantly with the baseline selected, benefits and
costs may be measured against multiple alternative baselines as a form of sensitivity
analysis.
9.3.2
Guideline 3.2-- Establishing Decision Options. The RBP system should be capable of
(1) assessing a broad range of decision options and (2) suggesting new decision
options.
Discussion. RBP systems can be employed in two distinct ways. First, an RBP
system can be used to assess a predefined set of decision options (specified perhaps
by the end user). In this usage, the set of decision options is determined
independently of the team of decision analysts conducting the prioritization project
through the conduct of engineering analyses, financial analyses, etc. Second, an RBP
system can be used in an iterative fashion to help identify new decision options. In
this usage, the decision analysts conducting the prioritization project work as a team
with other engineers and analysts to help postulate viable decision options. The RBP
system can be applied to a preliminary set of decision options; the results of this
preliminary prioritization can then be studied to identify the dominant factors that
discriminate among decision options (for example, the performance measures that
drive the results can be identified). Based on this information, new decision options
may be identified for further consideration.
17

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