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| DOE-STD-1024-92
OR-1
The evaluation to obtain the pseudo-mean peak ground acceleration has been
changed to include the LLNL hazard results with expert #5 instead of the LLNL
hazard results without expert #5, which were used in the previous draft. We do
not recommend using LLNL hazard results with expert #5 included. The
guidelines themselves discuss numerous studies which have been performed to
justify not using the LLNL results with expert #5 included. The LLNL results with
expert #5 for the 85th percentile and the mean are outliers, and should not be
used to determine the pseudo-mean peak acceleration in the guidelines.
Including expert #5 in the evaluation increases the pseudo-mean peak
acceleration about 25-40 percent, which we believe is not appropriate for use
with the evaluation requirements defined in UCRL-15910.
The guidelines state that the rationale for including expert #5 "relates to the fact
that resulting peak accelerations have a conservative bias, making engineering
assessments more stable in that final resolution to the LLNL EPRI issue to 1.5 to
2 years away. If engineering assessments conclude that major upgrades are
necessary for existing facilities, an explicit assessment should also be made
using the pseudo-mean peak accelerations without LLNL attenuation expert 5."
There are numerous steps in performing seismic evaluations where small extra
conservatism has a tendency to be introduced at each step. These extra
conservatisms are accumulated through the total evaluation process and can
increase the demands 2-3 times or greater in the final evaluation results. The
seismic evaluation must also be tied to an overall risk assessment of the facility
which could be significantly impacted by these extra conservatisms. Therefore
we recommend that extra conservatism not be included this way. We
recommend the input parameters for seismic evaluations be determined without a
conservative bias, and then evaluate the sensitivity of the input parameters to
determine if the evaluation conclusions, and risk assessments are affected. This
is the philosophy of the evaluation procedures defined in UCRL-15910.
OR-2
We agree with the additional information on how to develop a deterministic site
specific spectral shape. We recommend only the EPRI uniform hazard spectra
be used to determine the dominant earthquake parameters for the site-specific
spectra shapes because the LLNL uniform hazard spectra are controlled by
standard spectral shape models as discussed in the guidelines. Therefore, the
LLNL spectra do not actually represent uniform hazard spectra and should not be
used to determine the dominant earthquake parameters for the site-specific
studies. The guidelines could be improved by including a case study on how to
develop the site-specific spectra.
A-14
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