Crash Location Probabilities for Near-airport Operations - Continued

DOE-STD-3014-96

APPENDIX B

for large military aircraft with the pattern side to the right of the runway; Tables B-7 and

B-9 are for large military aircraft with the pattern side to the left of the runway;

Tables B-10 and B-12 are for small military aircraft with the pattern side to the right of

the runway; and Tables B-11 and B-13 are for small military aircraft with the pattern

side to the left of the runway.

Note that the commercial aviation takeoff and landing crash location probability values

are symmetric about the x axis (the extended runway centerline), i.e., f(x,y)=f(x,-y). In

addition, the crash locations are concentrated along the x axis, which is to be

expected, since commercial aircraft are always flown under instrument flight rules and

follow a precise directional approach during takeoff and landing operations. Also note

that, consistent with the coordinate convention system used, all takeoff crash locations

are in the positive x direction occurring beyond the end of the runway (see Table B-2).

The landing crashes have negative values for the x distance, because during landing

the aircraft approaches the runway from a negative x value and heads towards the

origin.

Tables B-4 and B-5 provide the estimated crash location probability values for fixed

wing general aviation takeoff and landing crashes, respectively. The estimated

probability values are based on the crash location classifications and distances

provided in the NTSB database. The probability values indicate more widely spread

crash locations, as expected, since general aviation aircraft are frequently used for

training and takeoff and landing practice, and they are usually flown under visual flight

rules.

For military aviation, two sets of crash location probability values are provided for each

aircraft subcategory. Each set identifies the pattern side, the side of the runway where

the majority of flight activities take place. For large military aircraft, the estimated

crash location probability values for takeoff and landing crashes are provided in Tables

B-6 and B-8 when the pattern side is on the right side of the runway, and in Tables B-7

and B-9 when the pattern side is on the left side of the runway. For small military

B-8